AI Prediction Accuracy — Track Record
Independently scored outcomes vs. the AI's published predictions. Updated each generation run.
Updated · Last 90 days
46.9%
Correct outcomes
199 / 424
9.9%
Exact scores
42 / 424
Model comparison
Each AI model in our ensemble is scored independently against final results — the same matches, the same window.
| Model | Predictions | Correct | Exact scores | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-5 | 108 | 61 | 11 | 56.5% |
| gpt-5 | 108 | 59 | 10 | 54.6% |
Accuracy by month
Complete months only. A month the rolling window cuts into is left out of this table, but its matches still count towards the total above.
| Month | Predictions | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 97 | 52 | 53.6% |
| August 2026 | 206 | 100 | 48.5% |
| July 2026 | 53 | 24 | 45.3% |
Accuracy by competition
| Competition | Predictions | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup 2026 | 93 | 39 | 41.9% |
| Brasileirão Série A | 79 | 29 | 36.7% |
| Eredivisie | 44 | 21 | 47.7% |
| Primeira Liga | 44 | 25 | 56.8% |
| La Liga | 41 | 20 | 48.8% |
| Premier League | 30 | 14 | 46.7% |
| Serie A | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% |
| Bundesliga | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
| UEFA Champions League | 18 | 14 | 77.8% |
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