Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC Prediction La Liga · Oct 18, 2026

Analysis

Real Madrid come into Round 9 fourth in the table with 15 points from seven games (5 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats) and an 18:8 goal record, and crucially both of those defeats came on the road, at Atlético (1-2) and Betis (0-1), while at home they have been ruthless with a 4-1 win over Rayo Vallecano and a 2-1 win over Inter. Sevilla's last five read 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, and the pattern is unusually rigid: they have scored exactly one goal in every single one of those matches while conceding seven. Both of their heavy days came at home against the elite, 1-3 to Barcelona and 1-3 to Atlético, whereas away from Sánchez-Pizjuán they were tidy, winning 1-0 at Deportivo La Coruña and drawing 1-1 at Espanyol. That gives us a clear shape for this game: a dominant home side that keeps conceding something (Madrid have shipped a goal in all five of their recent fixtures) against a low-scoring but stubborn travelling team. We therefore favour a 2-1 home win, which also leans the total slightly over 2.5 and makes both teams to score the marginally better side of the coin. The main risk is the version of Sevilla that defended well in Coruña and Barcelona turning this into a 1-0 or 2-0 grind.