AFC Ajax vs NEC Prediction Eredivisie · Oct 10, 2026

Analysis

Ajax go into round 8 as one of the top three sides in the Eredivisie after seven matches and have been scoring freely: 17 goals in their last five games, including a 5-1 away win at Fortuna Sittard, a 4-0 at Telstar and a 5-1 home demolition of Willem II. The blemishes are a 1-3 home defeat to PSV and a sloppy 2-2 at home with Excelsior, so the back line is not airtight either — seven conceded across those same five matches. NEC are mid-table and have won only one of their last five, the 3-1 at PEC Zwolle, with 1-1 against Go Ahead Eagles and 2-2 against Excelsior either side of heavy losses, 0-3 at Cambuur and 1-3 at home to Feyenoord. That last pair is the key evidence: against the better teams they faced, NEC shipped three goals each time. All five of Ajax's recent fixtures produced three goals or more, and four of NEC's five did as well, which makes the goal line a firmer read than the exact margin. A 3-1 home win is our single most likely scoreline.